Epidemic coronavirus covid-19
Epidemic coronavirus covid-19 .The arrival of sunny days usually signals the end of the seasonal flu epidemic. Could the Sars-Cov-2 coronavirus, which is transmitted in the same way, also naturally disappear with heat? Nothing is less certain, even if researchers believe that its spread could be greatly curbed.
should we worry? Health measures are being taken by all European governments to limit the spread of the virus. Should we be worried about the current pandemic?
On February 10, US President Donald Trump declared that ” by April, or during the month of April,in general kills this kind of [of the ] “. A prediction contradicted as we see today with the explosion of cases around the world. However, we know that the for example, is a seasonal phenomenon, the arrival of spring leading to a significant drop in the number of cases. In addition, we see that Covid-19 seems to spread less quickly in countries of the , like in .
Falling immunity, confinement: why winter favors the spread of viruses
This situation is linked to several phenomena linked both to the nature of the virus and to our behavior. ” First, theseems to survive better in cold, dry weather, with less ultraviolet ,” said Jeremy Rossman, professor of virology at the University of Kent (UK), at . Second, shorter days lead to reduced levels of and , which can affect the performance of our . Finally, we spend more time indoors with other people, which increases the chances of the virus spreading. A study published in 2013 in suggests that dry in winter (outside or inside) alters the effectiveness of nasal which filters foreign bodies such as viruses or .
A 48% drop in epidemic Coronavirus Covid-19 contagion by summer?
But, can we compare theand the Sars-Cov-2? The mode of transmission (by microdroplets when sneezing) is in any case identical. However, when it is hot, these droplets tend to evaporate more quickly, which limits transmission. A study by the Chinese university of Beihang published on 3 on the scientific site modeled the contacts between the patients of the big Chinese cities crossed with meteorological data. She concluded that ” high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19 “. The researchers estimate that the reproduction rate (indicating the ) should drop by 48% between March and July. But beware: heat does not kill the virus and : it simply slows its progression.
Heat won’t kill epidemic coronavirus Covid-19
In reality, ” we know too little at present about this new virus to predict the changes it will experience depending on the weather conditions ,” tempers David Heymann, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , on the site..
Theof , also linked to a coronavirus, started in September 2012 in Saudi Arabia, when temperatures are high and never completely stopped since sporadic cases occur from time to time.
And, if the cases of Covid-19 seem to be less numerous in Africa, it may be due to poorer detection of the virus or because the elderly,, are in the minority, suggests his side Etienne Decroly, research director at CNRS, interviewed by . In addition, there is an intense spread of the virus in Europe at this time, when precisely winter and humid.
In short, it is better not to rely on the mere arrival of sunny days to change the trend. Hence the containment measures announced by governments which, we hope, will last as short a time as possible. Donald Trump, he still believes in it, even if he has postponed his. On Monday March 16, the President said the epidemic would last until ” July, August, or something like that .” Just in time for his re-election in November?
WHAT YOU MUST REMEMBER:
- Viruses such as the flu virus spread more easily in winter than in summer.
- This is due both to physiological phenomena and to behavior.
- Researchers estimate that the spread of Covid-19 could be significantly slowed by the summer.
- But there are still too many uncertainties to know whether the Covid-19 will really follow the flu trend.
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